The New Insurgent Offensive in Northwest Syria

Since yesterday, insurgent factions led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (which broke ties with al-Qa‘ida) under the “Military Operations Administration” collective have been engaging in an offensive against positions held by the Syrian government and its allies along the Aleppo and Idlib countryside fronts in northwest Syria. The offensive is in fact the first major battle between the insurgents and Syrian government forces since spring 2020, when a Turkey-Russia negotiated ‘de-escalation’/general ceasefire was imposed on the northwest region and thereby marking the overall freezing of the conflict. To be sure, there had been rumours in October of a planned insurgent offensive, but there was skepticism about these rumours among observers (myself included) because of how long the status quo has held. So what explains the new offensive, and what are the calculations and motivations underlying it?