The Lull in the Attacks Against U.S. Forces in Iraq and Syria: Overview and Analysis

In a recent feature item on the kidnapping of Israeli-Russian researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov in Iraq, ABC News counted more than 170 attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq, Syria and Jordan (the Jordan incident being the one that killed three U.S. personnel) since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas on 7 October. In so far as these attacks have been claimed and identified, the vast majority if not all of them can be traced to Iranian-backed armed groups operating in Iraq, in particular the groups operating under the umbrella of the ‘Islamic Resistance in Iraq’ (Kata’ib Hezbollah, Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada’, Harakat al-Nujaba’ and Ansar Allah al-Awfiya’).

Yet it is to be noted that the last time that the ‘Islamic Resistance in Iraq’ claimed an operation against U.S. forces was on 4 February, more than a month ago: in that case, targeting the Americans stationed in Syria. In a statement on 9 February, the ‘Islamic Resistance in Iraq’ denounced U.S. retaliatory strikes in Iraq that most notably killed Kata’ib Hezbollah official Abu Baqir al-Sa‘adi (who was involved in targeting U.S. forces in Iraq during the period of the U.S. presence in 2003-2011), saying that the American retaliation would only make the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq, in its publicly declared factions, more committed to its responsibilities towards its people, country and Ummah, whatever the circumstances.” The statement further called on “brothers in jihad to join the ranks of the resistance, in that they should be determined to actually participate in expelling the occupation at this historical stage for Iraq and the region.”

A post disseminated recently on pro-Kata’ib Hezbollah Telegram channels showing Abu Baqir’s involvement in targeting U.S. forces in 2007.


If this statement was intended to convey a threat of counter-retaliation, that threat has not been followed through. Instead, all the operations claimed since then have been directed at Israel, and they are hardly meaningful as a military threat if they have any credibility. On 6 March, the ‘Islamic Resistance in Iraq’ issued a statement affirming that its goals are to expel U.S. forces from Iraq and stop Israel’s war effort in Gaza, and declaring that it will continue to target Israel until a ceasefire is announced and Israel abides by it:

"In the name of God, the Compassionate, the Merciful:

'And supporting the believers has been a right they are entitled to from us.'
God the Lofty and Almighty has spoken truthfully.

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has taken on its shoulder the burden of achieving two goals:

1. Liberating Iraq from the American occupation.
2. Supporting Palestine in its holy battle.

Therefore, our operations against the Zionist entity’s settlements on the occupied lands of Palestine will continue until the ceasefire is announced in Gaza and the usurping entity complies with it, and the Islamic Resistance’s heroes will at that point still remain in a state of complete preparedness, such that if the Zionist entity returns to committing its criminal actions, we will return, and God will return with us.

And God is the trustee of the believers.

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq: Wednesday, 25 Sha‘aban 1445 AH.”

Absent from this statement is any declaration about targeting U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria within the goal of removing U.S. forces from these countries. It would appear therefore that a conscious decision has been taken to suspend operations against U.S. forces for now. What explains this?