The Insurgent Offensive in Syria and the Myth of Cynical Schemes

As the insurgent offensive in northwest Syria sustains its momentum, now (unsurprisingly) having seized the city of Hama, some pundits have been touting what are essentially conspiracy theories about the role of the Syrian government and its Iranian and Russian allies in these events, speculating that one or more of these actors have somehow deliberately allowed the insurgent offensive to make rapid progress. Exemplifying this approach is a tweet by Muhammad Ali Shabani, editor of an outlet called Amwaj Media that specialises in coverage of Iran and the ‘resistance axis.’

A look at what has actually happened, however, shows that notions of cynical schemes by Assad or his allies are implausible in the extreme. In this post, I will tackle the myth of cynical schemes one by one

(Updated note, December 10: I should add that Shabani did go back on the assessment of Assad ‘playing chicken’ and that his overview of what has transpired more or less agrees with what I write below).