As noted before in this newsletter, a video recently emerged of some Israeli activists who crossed the border of the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and holed themselves up in a property lying between Majdal Shams (part of the Golan Heights) and the town of Hadr (controlled by Syria, and a Druze locality like Majdal Shams) for several hours before the IDF (which has launched incursions into southern Syria since the regime fell) took them back into Israel.
Then don't create situations which foster further instability, and which degrade Israel's international position such that responding to instability becomes harder.
Stability doesn't exist. It's an illusion. History is dynamic.
Your basic framing is dumb and gay: Israel needs to RESPOND to instability, and for this, it needs permission from the International Community.
But in the actual reality we inhabit, the range of options available to Israel (not just to respond, but to drive and shape reality) today is far, far greater than it was on October 6th.
Part of the reason is that exercising optionality creates more optionality, all things being equal. Making moves gives you the space to make more moves. Continuing to do the same thing cements the expectation that you'll keep doing it.
You seem to view it as stability or no stability, and my point is that there are varying degrees of instability and tumult.
As for your concept of "permission", managing relationships is basic geopolitical realism. Every country only has so much credit and resources to work with. Getting the country sanctioned and negatively affecting the Israeli budget adds costs and reduces Israeli ability to respond to things. Israel has more options now than October 6, and being stupid will mean fewer options.
There are no varying degrees of instability. Stability is always an illusion.
Actual credit is the value you are providing, your perceived willingness to do things without permission, and your perceived susceptibility to pressure. Our exports and foreign investment are skyrocketing, we flattened Gaza and blew Hezbollah balls, hands and eyes off without permission from Big Brother, Trump joined the war with Iran because we let him know we were going in one way or the other.
In practice, smart actions aren’t ones that give you head pats, but the ones that increase your optionality. See above.
People don't care as much about what Israel does river to sea and in response to having been invaded or attacked by actors nobody in the Gulf or Europe actually likes or gives a shit about.
People will care if you start grabbing territory from the current Syria who hasn't done anything against Israel, cooperates with Israel low-key, has the same enemies as Israel (Palestinians, Hezbollah, Iran) and which Europeans and Gulfies and Turks and Russians have a bunch of vested interests in.
The Golan heights of 1967 included territory Israel moved into in December of 2024. The 1974 agreement transferred a small portion of that back to Syrian control on condition that it remain a buffer.
The territory they're in now is part of the buffer of 1967.
This man is amazing, I studied at Ariel University to get a master's degree in molecular biology and I can say that many academics in Israel are right wing and support our country, unfortunately this is very rare in the US.
Buncha crazies who are like "oh we need a buffer" and then are gonna be like "we need a buffer for the buffer".
Yes, history is dynamic. Stability doesn't exist.
Then don't create situations which foster further instability, and which degrade Israel's international position such that responding to instability becomes harder.
You need to work on your reading comprehension.
Stability doesn't exist. It's an illusion. History is dynamic.
Your basic framing is dumb and gay: Israel needs to RESPOND to instability, and for this, it needs permission from the International Community.
But in the actual reality we inhabit, the range of options available to Israel (not just to respond, but to drive and shape reality) today is far, far greater than it was on October 6th.
Part of the reason is that exercising optionality creates more optionality, all things being equal. Making moves gives you the space to make more moves. Continuing to do the same thing cements the expectation that you'll keep doing it.
You seem to view it as stability or no stability, and my point is that there are varying degrees of instability and tumult.
As for your concept of "permission", managing relationships is basic geopolitical realism. Every country only has so much credit and resources to work with. Getting the country sanctioned and negatively affecting the Israeli budget adds costs and reduces Israeli ability to respond to things. Israel has more options now than October 6, and being stupid will mean fewer options.
There are no varying degrees of instability. Stability is always an illusion.
Actual credit is the value you are providing, your perceived willingness to do things without permission, and your perceived susceptibility to pressure. Our exports and foreign investment are skyrocketing, we flattened Gaza and blew Hezbollah balls, hands and eyes off without permission from Big Brother, Trump joined the war with Iran because we let him know we were going in one way or the other.
In practice, smart actions aren’t ones that give you head pats, but the ones that increase your optionality. See above.
People don't care as much about what Israel does river to sea and in response to having been invaded or attacked by actors nobody in the Gulf or Europe actually likes or gives a shit about.
People will care if you start grabbing territory from the current Syria who hasn't done anything against Israel, cooperates with Israel low-key, has the same enemies as Israel (Palestinians, Hezbollah, Iran) and which Europeans and Gulfies and Turks and Russians have a bunch of vested interests in.
Yes, after all this is already a "buffer for a buffer."
The zone the Israelis are in was already a buffer per the 1974 agreement
The occupied Golan Heights is the original "buffer" and now Israel wants a buffer for its buffer.
The Golan heights of 1967 included territory Israel moved into in December of 2024. The 1974 agreement transferred a small portion of that back to Syrian control on condition that it remain a buffer.
The territory they're in now is part of the buffer of 1967.
This man is amazing, I studied at Ariel University to get a master's degree in molecular biology and I can say that many academics in Israel are right wing and support our country, unfortunately this is very rare in the US.
What does Ariel have to do with Hader?
What does supporting the country have to do with a bunch of people doing stuff in defiance of the government and the military?