As was predictable from the nature of the massive Israeli strike on Beirut yesterday (clearly designed to penetrate through to underground structures used by Hezbollah beneath apartment blocks in the Dahiya region where the group wields political and military influence) and the confidence of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) announcement this morning, Hezbollah has now confirmed the death of its long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah. A few observations:
1. Although some will debate the morality of the strike given that it likely also killed many civilians in the vicinity, it is obvious that the Israelis launched the strike because they had precise intelligence as to the whereabouts of the Hezbollah leadership. If one struggles with questions of morality, the clearest position to adopt on this matter is simply one of consistency: that conversely, if Hezbollah had precise intelligence on IDF commanders holding a meeting in an underground facility concealed by apartment buildings in Tel Aviv, there should be no qualm or complaint about Hezbollah’s targeting of the meeting, even if the strike destroys the apartment buildings above it and kills civilians. That Hezbollah leaders have been holding meetings in and beneath civilian apartment buildings in Dahiya is a matter of gross irresponsibility on their part.
2. Hezbollah is clearly marred by fundamental rot and internal corruption if the Israelis have been able to penetrate its security so thoroughly and decapitate most of its known senior leadership so rapidly.
3. Hezbollah pledges to continue the fight and it is certainly premature to speak of Israeli victory or say that Israel is ‘winning’. Remember that war is fundamentally about achieving one’s aims, and Israel ultimately does not win on this front unless one of the following happens:
(i) Hezbollah is destroyed.
(ii) Hezbollah agrees on Israel’s terms to back down from firing projectiles and drones into Israel and effectively cancel its ‘support front’ for Hamas in Gaza and bid to get Israel to stop the military campaign in Gaza.
(iii) At the very minimum, Hezbollah becomes degraded in its military capacity such that while it may not formally concede to Israel’s demands, its ability to launch rockets and other projectiles is severely hampered and thus Israelis who fled the northern towns and localities near the border with Lebanon feel that they can safely return to their homes.
4. All that said, it should be evident by now that Hezbollah is not winning and in fact made a major miscalculation in assuming that its bid to pressure Israel would somehow work. Not only has Hezbollah’s pressure campaign not succeeded, but it has also been met by major escalatory responses from Israel, beginning with the assassination of Fuad Shukr, moving through to the pager attack, and finally this strike that has taken out Nasrallah. It is also clear that Israel shows no sign of stopping the pressure on Hezbollah, and the United States is unlikely to force Israel to back down.
Hezbollah’s supporters and sympathisers often say that Hezbollah’s decision to open the ‘support front’ was necessary because the cause (so they say) is fundamentally moral and righteous. This sort of discourse, however, confuses morality and strategy. Hezbollah may well show concern for the plight of Gaza’s civilians (although as with most actors in this world, concern for civilian suffering tends to be selective). However, morality, seeing oneself as ‘on the right side of history’, and expressions of cathartic outrage on social media are not substitutes for strategic error and miscalculation. As I have also emphasised, it is not enough to merely inflict costs on the adversary in war: the costs have to be tied to specific aims, like extracting a concession or a surrender.
Below is the statement translated. Any parenthetical insertions in square brackets are my own.
In the name of God, the Compassionate, the Merciful
“So let those who swap this worldly life for the Hereafter fight in God’s path, and whoso fights in God’s path and is killed or is victorious, We will bring him a great reward.”
God the Lofty and Almighty has spoken the truth.
His eminence, the lord of the resistance, the just servant, has moved to the realm of his Lord and His contentment as a great martyr and a heroic, brave, courageous, insightful, believing leader, joining the heavenly eternal caravan of the martyrs of Karbala’, in the divine faithful procession on the path of the prophets and the martyred imams.
His eminence al-Sayyid Hasan Nasrallah- the secretary general of Hezbollah- has joined his great eternal martyred companions, whose course he led for some thirty years, in which he led them from victory to victory, succeeding the master of martyrs of the Islamic Resistance in 1992 until the liberation of Lebanon in 2000, and to the divine great victory of 2006 and the rest of the battles of honour and sacrifice, until the battle of support and heroism in support of Palestine, Gaza and the oppressed Palestinian people.
We offer condolences to the master of the age and time (may God hasten his deliverance) and the trustee of the Muslims’ affair- the Imam al-Sayyid Ali al-Khamana‘i (may his shadow last long), and the great marja‘s [authorities], the entire Islamic Ummah, and all the free and oppressed people in the world, as well as to his enduring noble family. We also congratulate his eminence the secretary general of Hezbollah al-Sayyid Hasan Nasrallah (may God’s contentment be upon him), for his attaining of the most elevated of divine honours, the honour of Imam al-Husayn (peace be upon him), achieving the most precious of his hopes and the highest of the thanks of faith and sincere creed, as a martyr on the road to al-Quds [Jerusalem] and Palestine. We also offer condolences to his martyred companions who have joined his pure and sanctified convoy following the Zionist raid on Dahiya Janubiya [southern Dahiya].
The leadership of Hezbollah pledges to the most noble, holy and precious martyr on our course filled with sacrifices and martyrs, to continue its jihad in confronting the enemy, aiding Gaza and Palestine, and defending Lebanon and its steadfast and noble people.
To the noble mujahidin and triumphant and victorious heroes of the Islamic Resistance, you who are also the trust of the redeemed martyr sayyid, and you are his brothers- you who were his strong shield and the pearl of the crown of heroism and sacrifice: our leader his eminence al-Sayyid is still among us in his thought, spirit, plan, and holy path. You are on the pledge of loyalty and fulfilment of resistance and sacrifice until victory.
28 September 2024
24 Rabi‘ al-Awwal 1446 AH
The martyrdom of one man changes nothing and israel will be destroyed